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Last
weeks resignation by Jeffrey Donaldson from the UUP
is not at all surprising, what was a surprise
is that it took him so long. Citing the abandonment
of principle by the UUP as the main reason
for falling on his sword, Donaldson at once began
the face saving spin that would have have
been at least a lot harder, if not impossible after
his certain forthcoming expulsion at the start
of 2004.
The
ultimatum offered to Donaldson and his dissenting
colleagues of coming back into the partyline or face
expulsion, was one which was obviously mooted to present
the rebel with a stark choice. It illustrated that
his last chance to wrest the reigns of power from
Trimble was effectively gone and that if he continued
to refuse to supplicate himself before the master,
he would face increasing alienation and opprobrium.
It is not beyond imagination to suggest for example
that after his fits of petulance that de-selection
in the next Westminster election would have become
a reality, purely on the grounds that if had no qualms
about refusing the Westminster whip already he would
readily continue to pull such stunts again as, if
it achieved little else, it did deflect a great deal
of focus from where the UUP leadership needed it to
be in the run up to their defeat in the recent assembly
elections. Party disunity more than any other form
of political intrigue will attract great press attention,
Donaldson knew this and eagerly played his hand with
that card in it. That it has apparently turned out
to be a losing hand was part of the gamble that he
made.
The
intrigue of this particular situation however is more
than a question of taking chances in an effort
to oust the incumbent leader of a party. It is a question
of whether his adventures to try and oust
his leader was an issue of a genuine adherence to
traditional stoic Unionist intransigence or an
exercise in pure lust for the leadership post.
There
are valid arguments for opting for each of these positions.
For example Donaldson walked out
of the Good Friday Agreement negotiations at the last
minute. From that point onwards his real
colours as a hardliner were firmly nailed to the mast.
Last Friday’s UUP statement concerning Donaldson’s
resignation however stated that in the GFA talks he
was a “moderniser” meaning that even
up to the last moment he was included in the team
because he was considered to be a member wedded
to the new idea of proper or at least more meaningful
power sharing. The party statement continued
simply by stating that straight after this point Donaldson
had lost his way.
What
exactly led Donaldson to walk out of the talks in
1998 has never been made precisely clear.
The
usual speculation about cross border interference
and the admittance of Sinn Fein into an assembly
before full and total IRA disarmament are probably
very near the truth. It does not account
however for Jeffrey Donaldson’s deep seated dislike
of nationalism and republicanism in
general. For this particular reasoning Donaldson’s
personal experiences reveal why he holds the
beliefs and opinions, especially with regard to the
early release of prisoners. This was because his
cousin was a RUC member killed by the IRA.
This
also explains his constant and highly vocal criticism
of the change of the RUC name and
the proposed abolition of the RIR. He had for example
criticised the release of those jailed for
killing Lord Mountbatten as being premature. At that
point these men had been incarcerated for
almost two decades.
Given
that Donaldson’s background has very heavy indicators
why he should have always been regarded
as a hardliner, and we must assume that people at
executive level knew much of his thinking
on these issues, it is somewhat difficult to surmise
exactly why he was included in the senior
negotiating team in 1998. There is of course a need
in such circumstances to include a range of
opinion within each party team, and undoubtedly this
was part of it. Donaldson in comparitive terms
is the equivalent of Martin Mc Guinness’s inclusion
on the Sinn Fein squad. These are the hawkish
elements the flip side of which could be the juxtaposition
of Mitchell Mc Laughlin and Dermott
Nesbitt. However given Donaldson’s walk out in
1998 and the subsequent vigour of his attacks
not only on the UUP but Trimble himself, there must
have been a desire within Donaldson himself
to get onto to the talks team in 1998, if only to
keep his profile raised and put himself in a position
of primacy just in case things had actually worked
in Trimble’s favour and any positions of
power were to be doled out. By failing to disguise
his distaste for the compromises reached with
republicans and nationalism in the talks and the handling
of these issues by the UUP leader Donaldson
had in effect marked out the path to a stormy future
within the party’s ranks. He is
firmly cut from the mould of Molyneaux, Taylor and
indeed his former mentor Enoch Powell.
He
had become the immovable voice of official Unionism,
consistently refusing to compromise or
accommodate other traditions.
Donaldson
was an early convert to the UUP cause. Still in his
teens when he joined Young Unionist Movement, as early
as 1983 he was appointed Enoch Powell’s election
agent and had entered the failed assembly of that
era as one of the youngest members. He then went onto
chair the Ulster Young Unionist Council in 1985 and
1986, notably in a period of great Unionist opposition
to the Anglo-Irish accord of 1985. Regarded as a rising
star he was selected as a Westminster candidate and
has held the Lagan Valley seat since 1997.
Donaldson’s
walkout in 1998 had initially sparked fears of a major
UUP split that never actually materialised. His walkout
saw the UUP barring him from standing in the assembly
elections at that point. At this stage Donaldson had
begun to gather enough support against Trimble that
by 1999 he had to go on the record to deny he was
mounting a direct leadership challenge.
The
following two Ulster Unionist Council meetings in
2000 over participation in the devolved assembly
were widely regarded as a battle between Trimble and
Donaldson, and the swing towards the
DUP in the 2001 general election only heightened speculation
about a further direct show down.
The subsequent further eleven UUC meetings at no point
saw a direct leadership challenge from
Donaldson, although party divisions were by then cemented
into the UUP. Preferring to snipe from
the stands as opposed to laying down the gauntlet
also contributed heavily to his eventual UUP
demise. He was also careful to remain within the fold
long enough and also use the assembly election
as a shield against expulsion before he was resoundingly
elected in November. Therefore is
he a traitor to those UUP voters who thought he would
remain a UUP member and voted for him
on that basis? That is an argument that will run and
run. Donaldson needed the UUP to get
elected to any future assembly, he also needed the
UUP to be totally obliterated in electoral terms
to justify any last tilt he may have felt like making
at the leadership. It did not happen and
the last chance disappeared.
Donaldson
has been warmly invited into the bosom of the DUP.
That he will join them in the new year
is not really assured. Yet, the DUP is something of
a natural home for him at the moment. Born a
Presbyterian in 1962 he is not adverse to the overtly
religious overtones imbued within Paisley’s political
vehicle. However there was pre-election derision from
the DUP, most notably, from Peter Weir
who decried Donaldson, Burnside and Smith for standing
as UUP candidates when he contended
that Trimble was on the ropes and the unholy trinity
should have been there helping to
finish him off. This was either as I have already
suggested, a touch of the Machiavellian coming out
in Donaldson precipitating his electoral survival
or indeed a desire to still see the UUP do well
in the elections, despite his misgivings. After all
a man who has been a stalwart for twenty years
would have difficulties in abandoning his post. His
issue is not with the UUP but with the
leadership direction of Trimble and the abject failure
to countenance sharing power with nationalists of
any shade.
When
all is said and done however Donaldson’s resignation
is a massive blow to the UUP.
Despite
the fact that he never really had the courage of his
convictions in going toe to toe with Trimble,
in electoral terms he has dealt a savage uppercut
to the chin of the UUP itself.
He
has taken Arlene Foster and Norah Beare with him and
if they join the DUP it means that it
will take their seats to 33, nine seats ahead of the
UUP. There can be no by-election in these cases,
there are no provisions for this in the assembly rules.
Besides, the likelihood of any UUP candidate
wanting to take on a proven vote winner in his own
back yard is extremely doubtful.
Even
avid Trimble-ites like David Mc Narry are giving the
UUP leader a guaranteed future life span
of merely another three months until the UUP annual
general meeting in March. Therefore it
may be worth finding a bookie prepared to offer odds
on a Donaldson come back at UUP top level
by late spring 2004. In the interim period figures
such as Martyn Smyth and David Burnside will
be there to check and reshaping of the party that
Trimble has in mind after eventually getting
rid of his nemesis. Only time will now tell if Jeffrey
Donaldson is indeed a man of solid Unionist
stonewalling or a failed pragmatist who craves high
office above high principles. I suspect that
the former is the more accurate, however this being
the case his principles are DUP principles and
have no place in the nascent UUP of Trimble, for the
time being at least.
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