The
intricacy and mastery of detail put into the robbery
of the Northern Bank in the heart of Belfast has
led to much speculation that the 'perps' responsible
for carrying it out belonged to one of the North's
local militias. Certainly the most illegally efficient
organisational minds on the island were not twiddling
their thumbs, or despatching shoals of pickpockets
through crowded streets of Christmas shoppers while
first time amateurs tripped over a city centre rainbow
and landed perchance on this pot of gold. No - outlaws
with a strategic mind were responsible for this.
The
reports thus far read like accounts from the 1978
Banstead robbery. A group of London gangsters led
by Chopper Knight using a bogus policeman and relying
on inside information planned and implemented a
sensationalist heist with split second timing and
military precision. The operation in the Blackwell
Tunnel went like clockwork and caused untold embarrassment
to the British police.
Given
that Northern Irish gangs outside the militia world
have rarely displayed such cunning and expertise,
the bookies odds on this one narrow considerably
the closer the pointer comes to settle on the Provisional
IRA. While nobody yet has suggested anything concrete
that would lead the finger to definitively point
in the direction of Adams' merry men, people's knowledge
of the wider world is largely mediated and heavily
dependant on inferences. It is the human condition.
People watch for patterns, study the form, rule
out the ridiculous, consider the plausible, and
them make conclusions. It is how we live. Whether
the conclusions in this case have caused the film
industry to cast around for scriptwriters to pen
the potential blockbuster Jesse Adams Rides Again,
remains to be seen. But if the Daily Telegraph,
based on its briefings from British security sources,
is anywhere near the mark, then the film isn't going
to be about anybody else.
In
the media discourse immediately following the robbery
there appeared suggestions that one reason for maintaining
caution against assumptions of Provisional IRA culpability
was that 'despite the signs pointing in their direction,
it is very difficult to believe that the leadership
of the Provisionals would sanction a spectacular
that would inevitably doom the fragile peace talks
to failure for another lengthy period.'
To
the contrary, such an action dovetails perfectly
with current Provisional strategy. If the Adams
outfit was responsible, then the final stages of
the operation were being put into effect while the
negotiations that collapsed earlier this month were
taking place. When Gerry Adams stood with Tony Blair
and Bertie Ahern, renouncing the IRA devil and all
of its works, the one image that flickers to mind
is of Michael Corleone renouncing Satan at the baptism
of his child in the closing stages of the Godfather
while his cohorts ruthlessly move through the streets
of New York clad with horns, tail and cleft foot.
Provisional
involvement in the robbery, if true, adds weight
to the view that the Sinn Fein leadership were never
serious about reaching the type of deal the DUP
thought it was getting. The only way Sinn Fein was
signing up for that deal was on the basis that it
would sneak the IRA into government. Tom McGurk
of the Sunday Business Post, thinking the
deal had been all but signed, taunted the DUP that
after years of trying to obliterate the IRA the
only thing the party had achieved was to place the
IRA at the heart of government. The DUP was lucky
it didn't reach agreement. Once in government with
Sinn Fein, and the robbery had occurred, the DUP
would have been under serious external pressure
not to buckle the new institutions. London and Dublin
would have pulled out all the stops in a bid to
persuade Paisley's party that it was the work of
former paramilitaries beyond mainstream control.
Sinn Fein relying on the IRA denial would claim
it was an internal bank room brawl prompted by securocrats
for the purpose of wrecking the peace process. There
would have been no shortage of bungling media hacks
blaming the Martians - anybody just as long as they
were not peace process linked. From within the DUP
and certainly from the ranks of the UUP, Peter Robinson
would have been subjected to a barrage of 'Peter
Provo' putdowns. And the bookies would take no bets
on who would be looking at their own reflection
asking, 'mirror mirror on the wall, who is the smuggest
of them all?'
Whether
responsible for this week's robbery or not, a functioning
IRA is essential to the maintenance of a peace process
which from the Sinn Fein point of view has as its
objective acquisition of the maximum amount of power
North and South. It is a goal aided by the persistent
uncertainty that plagues the smooth functioning
of the institutional dimension of the Good Friday
Agreement, an uncertainty that would most definitely
not be as intense in a post-IRA world. Consequently,
why not rob and deny it? There will be enough forces
in both governments not to mention the police and
media that will cover for you, that will insist
on such actions as not being deemed a threat to the Good
Friday Agreement.
The
trick of the peace process is to keep people endlessly
participating in a process that somehow never seems
to bring peace. And in the meantime the rest of
us can just sit around and wait for the next robbery
by the Martians. For as certain as the nose on your
face it will happen for as long as there is a peace
process.
