Now
that the brouhaha over the Provisional IRA's decommissioning
of the majority of its arsenal is beginning to subside,
and those nay sayers who doubted the aforementioned
would ever occur are acclimatizing their minds to
this inevitable, yet unprecedented, event, perhaps
it is time to assess where the Provisional Republican
Movement goes from here.
Clearly
the snail-like pace at which they have been gaining
political ground in the ROI since the second ceasefire
cannot continue if the party is to become a major
player in the ROI in the foreseeable future. At
the next general election in the south, Sinn Fein
need to move well into double figures as far as
the number of TDs they manage to get elected to
Dail Eireann. A tall order, some pundits may feel,
but if SF cannot increase considerably the number
of seats they hold when the decommissioning of arms
will still be fresh in the electorates mind, they
may well find themselves in a similar position to
the Workers Party back in the 1980s.
The
WP back then held six seats in Dail Eireann, one
more than SF have today. Yet the WP was unable to
break through this barrier and like a fair number
of Republican/left parties before them, once they
started to stall, political and personal differences
within the leadership and discontent amongst the
rank and file led to the disintegration of the party.
Below
the surface within SF there is a fair amount of
disquiet, which is hardly surprising if one considers
the concessions and compromises the Adams leadership
have squeezed out of the membership of Sinn Fein
in recent years. While Mr Adams and his closest
comrades can be seen to be moving the process forward
and gaining ever more political ground for the party,
in the main SF's membership have been prepared to
keep their doubts and discontent to themselves.
However if the expansion and forward movement of
the party fails to continue, it is doubtful if the
leadership can keep the lid on what may eventually
become a volcano of outrage at the manner in which
Mr Adams has conducted the party's internal affairs,
and demands of the membership that they turn their
backs on much they previously held dear. Thus for
Mr Adams it is imperative the SF train does not
hit the buffers but continues moving at high speed
towards his chosen destination.
The
outcome of all this will depend on what type of
party Mr Adams has decided Sinn Fein is to become.
Will it evolve from a revolutionary party into a
left reformist progressive party similar to those
European left parties who belong to the same
bloc as SF within the EU Parliament? A party
which will aim for the support of the dispossessed,
the working classes, the less well off economically
within the countryside and the more progressive
section of the middle classes?
Or
will Mr Adams reposition the party in the centre
and by so doing tout for the votes of the two thirds
of the electorate who have benefited from the Celtic
Tiger? It should not be overlooked that unlike in
the north, in the ROI Sinn Fein has never had a
substantial, solid working class core base. Whilst
it is true in recent years workers have increasingly
voted for SF, their support is neither traditional
nor inevitable and unlike the core support SF receives
from the northern nationalist working classes.
There
is not enough time for Mr Adams and his closest
supporters within SF to move the party to the centre
before the next general election, and if one suggests
this may be his intentions to rank and file Shinners,
they will scoff and call one a mischief maker. But
there are signs that this may well be his long term
aim. Whilst this would necessitate a realignment
within Irish politics as this right of centre ground
is already over crowded, one should not rule it
out.
It
looks like FF intend organizing in some sort of
way in the north; all eyes have been on the SDLP
as their co-partner, however, a centre-right SF
shorn of both its radical philosophy and those who
propagated it within SF would fit far more snugly
together with FF than the SDLP. Could Mr Adams'
strategy be to gain enough seats at the next election
to enter a coalition government with Fianna Fail,
and by so doing during the course of that Government,
gradually bring the two Parties ever closer together
to the extent they eventually become one?
Ridiculous? Perhaps, but how long ago was it when
the Adams leadership proclaimed not an ounce, not
a single bullet and we will never recognize the
northern state-let?
Having
said this there is little doubt the preferred option
for the vast majority of the SF membership and sections
of the leadership would be for the Party to become
the political representatives of Ireland's dispossessed,
working classes and the small progressive section
of the island's middle classes. If they were to
do this, and they have already made inroads within
all of these communities, then they could achieve
something truly historic, they could transfer James
Connolly's core beliefs to the modern age. By so
doing they could move Irish politics institutionally
to the left and in the process help build a state
the Unionist working classes in the north may wish
to join.
The
nature of southern politics where coalition is more
often than not the outcome of general elections
gives the left the opportunity to influence governmental
policy far beyond its electoral weight. And it would
not only be the political field SF could influence,
but the whole culture of the nation, which despite
the strides made in recent years still lags behind
as far as women's rights, race, etc is concerned.
The
latter option depends on either Gerry Adams controlling
his ambition and ego — and I mention this not
as a criticism because ego and ambition are necessary
attributes for a successful politician— or
if he is unable to do so, the membership of Sinn
Fein need to do it for him. Perhaps they should
start with the
company Mr Adams is keeping of late, hardly
the type most progressive politicians would wish
to be seen with, but it is just the type of company
a leader of a centre right party would be happy
to be seen with on the international stage.
